TopStreaksToday's Value Bets - Where the Odds Don't Match Reality
We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to find opportunities with 10%+ expected value
7
Value Bets Found
15.1%
Average Edge
25%
Highest Edge
Updated: 22:24
What is Value Betting?
A value bet exists when our calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ decimal odds).
Example:
If we calculate 50% probability and odds are 2.40, that's a 41% implied probability - giving you a 9% edge.
🔥 HIGH VALUE (25.0% Edge)
Championship
Sheffield UtdCoventry
🕐19:45
📍Bramall Lane
VALUE BET:
Over 2.5 Goals
Our Probability
65%
Bookmaker Odds
4.00
(25% implied)
Bet365
Expected Value
+25.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 65% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 25% probability
- ✓40.0 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Sheffield Utd scored in 6 straight matches. Coventry unbeaten in 3 away games.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
65%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
🔥 HIGH VALUE (25.0% Edge)
UEFA Champions League
AtalantaBorussia Dortmund
🕐17:45
📍New Balance Arena
VALUE BET:
Over 2.5 Goals
Our Probability
75%
Bookmaker Odds
4.50
(22% implied)
Bet365
Expected Value
+25.0%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 75% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 22% probability
- ✓52.8 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•High BTTS probability (75%)
•High Over 2.5 probability (75%)
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
75%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
🔥 HIGH VALUE (17.2% Edge)
UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint GermainMonaco
🕐20:00
📍Parc des Princes
VALUE BET:
Over 2.5 Goals
Our Probability
75%
Bookmaker Odds
1.73
(58% implied)
Bet365
Expected Value
+17.2%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 75% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 58% probability
- ✓17.2 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•High BTTS probability (75%)
•High Over 2.5 probability (75%)
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
75%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
🔥 MEDIUM VALUE (11.8% Edge)
Pro League
Al-FayhaNEOM
🕐19:00
📍King Abdullah Sports City Stadium
VALUE BET:
Al-Fayha Win
Our Probability
50%
Bookmaker Odds
2.62
(38% implied)
Bet365
Expected Value
+11.8%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 50% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 38% probability
- ✓11.8 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Al-Fayha won 3 in a row.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
50%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Medium (2-3% of bankroll)
🔥 MEDIUM VALUE (10.4% Edge)
Pro League
Al NajmaAl-Nassr
🕐19:00
📍Al-Najma Club Stadium
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
65%
Bookmaker Odds
1.83
(55% implied)
Bet365
Expected Value
+10.4%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 65% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 55% probability
- ✓10.4 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Al Najma scored in 7 straight matches. Al-Nassr won 8 in a row.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
65%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Medium (2-3% of bankroll)
🔥 MEDIUM VALUE (10.1% Edge)
Segunda División
AD Ceuta FCCordoba
🕐18:00
📍Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
70%
Bookmaker Odds
1.67
(60% implied)
Bet365
Expected Value
+10.1%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 70% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 60% probability
- ✓10.1 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•No significant streaks detected.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
70%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
Medium (2-3% of bankroll)
🔥 LOW VALUE (6.2% Edge)
Championship
MillwallBirmingham
🕐19:45
📍The Den
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
65%
Bookmaker Odds
1.70
(59% implied)
Calculated
Expected Value
+6.2%
Why This Is Value
- ✓Our model: 65% win probability based on 5 factors
- ✓Bookmaker odds imply only 59% probability
- ✓6.2 percentage point gap = significant value
Key Factors Driving Our Probability
•Millwall scored in 8 straight matches. Birmingham won 3 in a row.
•5-factor algorithm analysis
•Regression to mean favors this outcome
Confidence Level
65%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Value Betting 101
How to Calculate Value
Value = (Our Prob - Implied Prob) × 100
If value is positive, the bet has expected value.
Why Value Betting Works Long-Term
Over time, consistently betting on value opportunities will yield positive returns, even if individual bets lose. The key is bankroll management and patience.
How We Calculate Our Probabilities
Our 5-factor algorithm considers: regression to mean, opponent strength, venue context, H2H history, and recent form.
⚠️ Important: Value Betting & Bankroll Management
Value bets are not guaranteed wins. They represent long-term profitable opportunities when bet consistently. Always:
•Bet only what you can afford to lose
•Use proper bankroll management (1-5% per bet)
•Understand variance - short-term losses are normal
•Never chase losses