TopStreaksToday's Value Bets - Where the Odds Don't Match Reality
We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to find opportunities with 5%+ edge
10
Value Bets Found
13.8%
Average Edge
25%
Highest Edge
Updated: 03:00 UTC
What is Value Betting?
A value bet exists when our calculated probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ decimal odds).
Example:
If we calculate 50% probability and odds are 2.40, that's a 41% implied probability - giving you a 9% edge.
🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal PalaceRayo Vallecano
🕐19:00LIVE
📍Red Bull Arena
VALUE BET:
Over 2.5 Goals
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
7.50
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
60%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
🕐00:30
📍Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
2.10
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
80%
★★★★★
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente del ValleRosario Central
🕐22:00
📍Estadio Banco Guayaquil
VALUE BET:
Over 2.5 Goals
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
8.00
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
75%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
FriendliesTeam 8198
vsQatar U20
🕐15:30
VALUE BET:
BTTS - Yes
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
1.70
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
80%
★★★★★
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
TopStreaks model
View Detailed Analysis🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad AsuncionUCV
🕐22:00
📍Estadio Tigo La Huerta
VALUE BET:
Over 2.5 Goals
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
1.73
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
75%
★★★★☆
Recommended Stake
High (3-5% of bankroll)
Bet365🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
Friendlies
JamaicaZimbabwe
🕐15:00
VALUE BET:
Jamaica Win
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
TopStreaks model
View Detailed Analysis🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
CONMEBOL Libertadores
UniversitarioDeportes Tolima
🕐00:30
📍Estadio Monumental
VALUE BET:
Universitario Win
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
FriendliesJamaicaIndia
🕐18:30LIVE
📍The Valley
VALUE BET:
Jamaica Win
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
TopStreaks model
View Detailed Analysis🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
Friendlies
Cyprus U19Greece U19
🕐07:00
VALUE BET:
Cyprus U19 Win
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
2.00
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
55%
★★☆☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
TopStreaks model
View Detailed Analysis🔒 Pro feature
🔥 VALUE
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Club NacionalCoquimbo Unido
🕐00:30
📍Gran Parque Central
VALUE BET:
Club Nacional Win
Our Probability
🔒 Unlock edge
Bookmaker Odds
1.85
(🔒 Pro only implied)
Edge
🔒 Unlock edge
🔒 Unlock edge + model insights
Unlock full reasoning and model factors.
Confidence Level
60%
★★★☆☆
Recommended Stake
Low (1-2% of bankroll)
Bet365Value Betting 101
How to Calculate Value
Value = (Our Prob - Implied Prob) × 100
If value is positive, the bet has expected value.
Why Value Betting Works Long-Term
Over time, consistently betting on value opportunities will yield positive returns, even if individual bets lose. The key is bankroll management and patience.
How We Calculate Our Probabilities
Our 5-factor algorithm considers: regression to mean, opponent strength, venue context, H2H history, and recent form.
⚠️ Important: Value Betting & Bankroll Management
Value bets are not guaranteed wins. They represent long-term profitable opportunities when bet consistently. Always:
•Bet only what you can afford to lose
•Use proper bankroll management (1-5% per bet)
•Understand variance - short-term losses are normal
•Never chase losses